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Fed Implied Rates Continue Drift Lower

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have on balance continued a decline that started late in yesterday’s session on at the time limited new drivers, more recently potentially linked to concerns over the Chinese economy as authorities have stepped up efforts to stabilize markets per Bloomberg reports.
  • Cumulative hikes from 5.33% effective: +2.5bp Sep (unch), +9bp Nov to 5.42% terminal (-0.5bp)
  • Cuts from Nov terminal: 3bp to Dec’23, 52bp to Jun’24 and 118bp to Dec’24. The latter slowly builds from 116bp at yesterday’s close and 112bp on Wed at what was the lowest close post the July FOMC.
  • Still no scheduled Fedspeak for today, next up Goolsbee on Tue (Aug 22) before Jackson Hole with Powell now set for 1005ET on Fri (Aug 25)

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