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Fed Implied Rates Lift Slightly Off Lows With Daly Interview

STIR
  • Fed pricing comes off post-CPI session lows but only just with SF Fed’s Daly (’24 voter) noting the Fed still has more work to do and that the CPI data was largely as expected and that it doesn’t say ‘victory is ours’ on inflation.
  • She adds the Fed is yet to determine whether to raise and how long to hold rates, with Daly being data dependent and it premature to decide on another hike. There is a lot more info coming in before the September meeting and before year-end.
  • A relatively more hawkish note to end the interview though, with Fed ‘a long way’ from talking about rates being too restrictive.
  • FOMC-dated OIS implied rates show +2.5bp for Sep and +7.5bp for a Nov terminal of 5.40%, currently just below the post-payrolls close at what would be the lowest since Jul 19. It’s followed by 64bp of cuts from terminal to Jun’24.

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