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FED: KC's Schmid: Current Rates Aren't "Overly Restrictive"

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KC Fed President Schmid - one of the more hawkish members of the FOMC - delivered a speech with the same content as last week's ("Longer-term Considerations for Growth and Monetary Policy" - PDF link) and as the title implies, limited specifics about near-term monetary policy. He repeats: "While now is the time to begin dialing back the restrictiveness of monetary policy, it remains to be seen how much further interest rates will decline or where they might eventually settle."

  • In Q&A he notes (per wires) that short-term rates are not currently "overly restrictive", and it's not his expectation that pre-pandemic rates will return.
  • Schmid also notes that to the extent that they impact employment and inflation, changes in tariff and immigration policies will be relevant to the Fed - though until policy is enacted, it's not important to the Fed's discussions. (In his speeches this month he'd noted that larger fiscal deficits in general could translate into higher interest rates).
  • While Schmid is considered a hawk, he doesn't sound particularly predisposed to a "skip" in December - though note that he is a 2025 Voter and is probably eyeing a neutral rate closer to 4% than to 3%.
  • The highlights of the week's remaining Fedspeak include Gov Cook Wednesday, and Schmid's fellow 2025 voter (and likely hawk) Cleveland Fed Pres Hammack on Thursday.
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KC Fed President Schmid - one of the more hawkish members of the FOMC - delivered a speech with the same content as last week's ("Longer-term Considerations for Growth and Monetary Policy" - PDF link) and as the title implies, limited specifics about near-term monetary policy. He repeats: "While now is the time to begin dialing back the restrictiveness of monetary policy, it remains to be seen how much further interest rates will decline or where they might eventually settle."

  • In Q&A he notes (per wires) that short-term rates are not currently "overly restrictive", and it's not his expectation that pre-pandemic rates will return.
  • Schmid also notes that to the extent that they impact employment and inflation, changes in tariff and immigration policies will be relevant to the Fed - though until policy is enacted, it's not important to the Fed's discussions. (In his speeches this month he'd noted that larger fiscal deficits in general could translate into higher interest rates).
  • While Schmid is considered a hawk, he doesn't sound particularly predisposed to a "skip" in December - though note that he is a 2025 Voter and is probably eyeing a neutral rate closer to 4% than to 3%.
  • The highlights of the week's remaining Fedspeak include Gov Cook Wednesday, and Schmid's fellow 2025 voter (and likely hawk) Cleveland Fed Pres Hammack on Thursday.