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Free AccessFed Leaves Rate Steady, Projected 2024 Rate Cuts Reignited
- Tsy futures gap higher/extend highs well past pre-NFP levels after Fed held rate steady, acknowledging inflation has eased but reiterated the Fed is "prepared to tighten policy further, if appropriate". FOMC-dated OIS for March fell 8.5bps to 5.108%, back to pre-payrolls levels pricing in a cumulative 22.4bp of easing.
- "Achieving a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation sustainably down to 2% over time and to keeping policy restrictive until we're confident that inflation is on a path to that objective" Powell added.
- Tsy 10Y yield fell to 4.0051% low -- last seen on September 1, while March'24 10Y futures tapped 112-03 high (+1-18), tapping technical resistance 112-03 (1.382 proj of the Oct 19 - Nov 3 - Nov 13 price swing) before settling at 111-31.
- Futures had gapped higher following this morning's in-line to slightly lower PPI measures for November: Final Demand MoM (0.0% vs. 0.0% est, -0.4% prior revised from -0.5%), YoY (0.9% vs. 1.0% est, 1.2% prior revised from 1.3).
- The combination of the solid supercore print overall core running well above target, and the unexpected dip in the unemployment rate in the past week.
- Thursday Data Calendar: Weekly Claims, Retail Sales and Import/Export index data
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.