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Fed Optimism vs. Russia/Ukraine Geopolitical Tension

US TSYS SUMMARY
Rates traded sideways after the long Bond hit session highs around 1000ET Thu, moderately bid near top end of range on rather subdued volumes, TYM1 just over 985k after the close. S&P eminis trading firmer but off new all-time high 4092.75 tapped overnight.
  • No significant market reaction to weekly claims: +16k to 744k, continuing claims -0.016M to 3.734M. But rates did climb to session highs by midmorning, partially tied to safe haven buying due to increasing geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine as the former builds up military presence near Donbass region.
  • News wires reported German Chancellor Merkel "TOLD PUTIN TO REVERSE UKRAINE TROOP BUILDUP" Bbg around the time. Not eliciting much additional safe haven support, but late CNN headline report U.S. CONSIDERING SENDING WARSHIPS INTO THE BLACK SEA. Which makes some wonder why equities can continue to make new highs if a hot war in the region is a real concern.
  • Fed speak: Fed Chair Powell at IMF virtual forum, is looking for several more strong job reports like last Fri's (+916k for Mar) before judging the economic recovery has shown progress toward full employment, adding that conditions remain uneven.
  • MN Fed Pres Kashkari raised a few eyebrows late in day that "he would not panic if he saw a 4% inflation rate" DJ while tolerating "near-term inflation overshoot", Bbg.
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