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Fed Path More Earnestly Showing Three Consecutive Cuts In Sep, Nov and Dec

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied rates have seen a marked slide over the past 45 minutes, building on an already sizeable drop post-CPI.
  • Cumulative cuts: -1.5bp cut for June (-4.5bp on the day), -12.5bp for Jul (-7bp), -30bps for Sep (-9bp), -55bp for Nov (-12bp) and -80bp for Dec (-14bp). The latter gets closer to the 85bp of cuts priced before Friday’s payrolls report.
  • The year-end rate has slipped from 4.46% pre-CPI, broadly settled around 4.35% post-CPI and is now 4.28%.
  • The CPI report was broadly in line but showed some softer underlying trends for core services ex-housing and core goods ex-used cars, with various dispersion measures also dropping further back to pre-pandemic levels.
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