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Fed Path Pre-Payrolls: One Cut For Sept, 2.5 Cuts For Dec

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied rates have unsurprisingly seen little move from yesterday’s close.
  • Compared with the current effective 4.83%, we head towards payrolls with a 12bp hike for the May FOMC, 8bp of cuts for July, 27.5bp of cuts for Sep and 64bp of cuts to 4.19% at year-end.
  • The year-end rate remains down from 4.36% prior to JOLTS on Tuesday, holding in the upper half of the wide 3.5-4.5% range held since banking stresses set in.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied ratesSource: Bloomberg

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