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Fed Pricing Less Dovish On Supercore CPI

STIR

Initial dovish impetus derived from the CPI print is more than reversed as participants look to the totality of the data, namely the push higher in the supercore M/M metric.

  • Fed Funds futures now show ~108bp of cuts through ’24 on the whole, vs. 116bp pre-CPI and post-data extremes of ~122bp.
  • Pricing re: timing of the first cut remains centred on May ’24, with a range of 26-32bp of easing seen since the release vs. 27bp pre-data. ~26bp of cuts are priced through that meeting at typing.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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