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Fed Pricing Sees Modest Dovish Reaction To Data

STIR

A modest dovish reaction in FOMC-dated OIS following the data, with a higher-than-expected continuing claims print and mark lower in the final Q1 personal consumption reading sticking out the most.

  • Still, the moves are shallow, with ~17bp of cuts priced through the Sep FOMC vs. ~16.5bp pre-data, 25bp of cuts priced through the November meeting vs. 24bp pre-data and ~42bp showing through year-end vs. 40.5bp pre-data.
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A modest dovish reaction in FOMC-dated OIS following the data, with a higher-than-expected continuing claims print and mark lower in the final Q1 personal consumption reading sticking out the most.

  • Still, the moves are shallow, with ~17bp of cuts priced through the Sep FOMC vs. ~16.5bp pre-data, 25bp of cuts priced through the November meeting vs. 24bp pre-data and ~42bp showing through year-end vs. 40.5bp pre-data.