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Fed Rate Cuts Build With Retail Sales Next On The Docket

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have softened overnight, coming through Asia hours on clear drivers but then being further supported by dovish ECB speak from Knot. Near-term meetings see only modest change with larger declines into 2024 with later 2024 inversion building more notably.
  • Cumulative hikes from 5.08% effective: +23.5bp Jul (unch), +26.5bp Sep (unch), 30.5bp to a terminal 5.39% Nov (-1bp).
  • Cuts from terminal: 8bp to Dec’23 (from 7bp), 80bp to Jun’24 (from 76bp) and 157bp to Dec’24 (from 148bp).
  • Amidst the FOMC blackout on all things mon pol-related, two supervision-related appearances from Fed officials today at 1000ET touching on fair lending and climate change.

Source: Bloomberg

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