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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
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MNI EUROPEAN MARKETS ANALYSIS: MXN Up, Trump & Sheinbaum Speak
Fed Rate Cuts Trimmed With Second Half Sell-Off
- Fed Funds implied rates for near-term meetings have seen only a limited lift off lows considering the scale of the wider fixed income sell-off, showing just +2bp for the Sept FOMC and a cumulative +7bp for November (down -1bp and -1.5bp from before CPI).
- Subsequent meeting rates have however pushed higher, and even though are a little off recent session highs sit 2.5bp higher than pre-CPI for the Jun’24 and +8bp for the admittedly less liquid Dec’24.
- The combination leaves 60bp of cuts from the Nov terminal to Jun’24 and 134bp from terminal to Dec’24, back more firmly within post July FOMC ranges having drifted lower ahead of CPI.
- The recent increase despite a generally benign inflation print ties in nicely with LSE’s Ricardo Reis thinking it prudent for the Fed to hike another 50-100bp contrary to the 7bps priced (see here).
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.