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Fed Rate Cuts Trimmed With Second Half Sell-Off

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates for near-term meetings have seen only a limited lift off lows considering the scale of the wider fixed income sell-off, showing just +2bp for the Sept FOMC and a cumulative +7bp for November (down -1bp and -1.5bp from before CPI).
  • Subsequent meeting rates have however pushed higher, and even though are a little off recent session highs sit 2.5bp higher than pre-CPI for the Jun’24 and +8bp for the admittedly less liquid Dec’24.
  • The combination leaves 60bp of cuts from the Nov terminal to Jun’24 and 134bp from terminal to Dec’24, back more firmly within post July FOMC ranges having drifted lower ahead of CPI.
  • The recent increase despite a generally benign inflation print ties in nicely with LSE’s Ricardo Reis thinking it prudent for the Fed to hike another 50-100bp contrary to the 7bps priced (see here).

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