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Fed Rate Expectations Bounce But 2023 Still Squeezed

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes continue to see a sizeable intraday bounce, touching 68bps for the Nov 2 FOMC from a low of 63bps, nudging above yesterday’s close but still off 70-72bps at the start of the week.
  • Potentially helped by Bostic earlier with 75bp Nov and 50bp Dec to a “moderately restrictive” 4.25-4.5% come year-end.
  • Further out, implied rates have bounced notably off session lows but are still down heavily on the day: 4.20% Dec’22 (-1.5bp), terminal 4.44% for Mar’23 (-8.5bp) and 4.24% for Dec’23 (-14bp).
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