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Fed Rate Expectations Maintain Pause For Breath Pre CPI

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes maintain a broad pause seen through the week, consolidating the slide on payrolls/ISM.
  • Hikes: 31bp for Feb 1 (unch), cumulative 50bp Mar (-0.5bp), peak 61bp to 4.94% Jun (unch). Cuts: 50bps from peak to 4.45% year-end (-0.5bp), below current effective by Jan’24.
  • Fedspeak: Harker (’23 voter) at 0845ET shortly after CPI with text and Q&A means first CPI reaction more likely from Bullard (non-voter) at 1130ET before Barkin (’24) at 1240ET. Harker still of note though, with first updates since mid-Nov.


FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures implied rates at specific meetingsSource: Bloomberg

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