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Fed Rate Path Claws Back Some Of FOMC Presser Reversal

STIR FUTURES
  • Beyond the next meeting in February, Fed Funds implied hikes have nudged higher overnight but don’t fully reverse the press conference retracement of the initially hawkish reaction to the statement/SEP.
  • Compared with just prior to the statement, the 32bp for Feb is unchanged before a cumulative 48bps to 4.82% in Mar (+4bp), terminal 4.89% May (+8.5bp) and 4.37% end’23 (+7bp).
  • Powell saying the focus isn't on rate cuts and won't be considering such until the committee sees inflation returning to target doesn't stop ~50bp of cuts being priced from the terminal to year-end.

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