Free Trial

Fed Rate Path Consolidates Decline, Monthly PCE Ahead

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have consolidated yesterday’s slide as a strong increase in weekly continuing claims and slightly softer than expected core PCE offset GDP exceeding expectations.
  • Ahead sees the monthly PCE report with focus on the latest monthly profile of core PCE, as well as to what extent consumers ran down their savings rate into the end of the Q3 to have helped drive personal consumption growth of 4.0% annualized in Q3.
  • Cumulative hikes from 5.33% effective: +0.5bp Nov (unch), +4.5bp Dec (unch), +7.5bp Jan (+0.5bp) for terminal 5.41%.
  • Cuts from terminal: 27bp to Jun’24, 79.5bp to Dec’24 (unch), the latter back at the high end of the rough 65-85bp range seen since US CPI on Oct 12 with its strong supercore print.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.