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Fed Rate Path Drifts Higher

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have pushed a little higher since Friday’s close, building on the post-payrolls lift on stronger than expected wage growth and a surprise dip in the unemployment rate.
  • Cumulative cuts have dropped to 11bp for the March FOMC (12bp Fri, 17bp pre-payrolls) and just holds onto fully pricing the first cut in May with 26bp May (28bp Fri, 34bp pre-payrolls).
  • It builds to a cumulative 108bp cuts for 2024 (111bp Fri, 122bp pre-payrolls).

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