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Fed Rate Path Holds Close To Cycle Highs

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes still close to cycle highs: 78.5bp for Nov, 142bp to 4.50% Dec, 4.94% terminal in Mar/May’23 and 4.56% for Dec’23.
  • Scotia now also see terminal 5% by early 2023 from 3.5% prior. Likely to be a reasonably mild recession given balance sheets remain strong with the u/e rate rising from current 3.5% to 4.7% end-23.
  • Fedspeak late in the session, neither with text: Bostic (’24, 1400ET) in a panel discussion after trading violations were reported Fri and Kashkari (’23, 1730ET).

FOMC-dated Fed Funds implies ratesSource: Bloomberg

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