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Fed Rate Path In Middle Of Post-CPI Range

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes show 50bp for Dec (+0.5bp), 85bp to 4.70% for Feb (+1.5bp), terminal 4.91% May/Jun’23 (+2.5bp) and 4.42% Dec’23 (+4bp).
  • George (’22 voter) joined others calling to slow the pace of rate hikes but with a need to continue hiking with a challenge to avoid prematurely ending the hiking cycle and inflation at risk of getting entrenched.
  • Permanent voters ahead with Williams at a US Tsy market conference and Waller later watched after hawkish weekend comments (both with text). Barr also speaks at the House after Senate yesterday (expects to see significant softening in economy).

FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures implied ratesSource: Bloomberg

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