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Fed Rate Path Off Lows But Still Overwhelmingly Sees First Cut In July

STIR FUTURES
  • Near-term Fed Funds implied rates are holding onto an earlier increase off session lows that fully unwound any further hikes for the cycle to show a mere 3bps of hikes for the May FOMC from an effective 4.83%.
  • A cut in June is seen slightly less than a 50/50 likelihood again with -10bps priced having briefly fully priced a 25bp cut.
  • Increases have continued for meetings further out, with 35bps of cuts for July and 90bps to 3.93% year-end. The latter has seen particularly wide ranges for the week of 3.52-4.49%, the high coming in the hours before the dovish 25bp hike from the FOMC.

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