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Fed Rate Path Reverses CPI Lift With FOMC Eyed

STIR
  • Ahead of the FOMC decision, the day’s post-PPI rally has fully unround the boost from yesterday’s CPI release for the Fed Funds implied rate path.
  • There is 12bp of cumulative easing priced for March, 29bp for May, 48bp for June and 115bp end-2024 – see table for pre-CPI and pre-payrolls comparisons.
  • The latter tallies with a 4.18% implied effective rate, 90bps below the 5-5.25% range for the 2024 median dot from the September SEP (assuming the same spread over the lower bound).

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