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Fed Rate Path Steps Higher On First Of Week’s Labor Data

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have seen a sizeable shunt higher on the stronger than expected JOLTS job openings and surprising strength in the Conf Board’s labor market differential, although with surprisingly little drag from further downward momentum in quits rates.
  • March cut expectations have been trimmed 1.5bp to a cumulative 10.5bps, near recent post-Waller lows.
  • Cumulative cuts then build with 30bp for May, 55bp for June and 133bp for Dec (from 138bp pre-data) – see table.

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  • Fed Funds implied rates have seen a sizeable shunt higher on the stronger than expected JOLTS job openings and surprising strength in the Conf Board’s labor market differential, although with surprisingly little drag from further downward momentum in quits rates.
  • March cut expectations have been trimmed 1.5bp to a cumulative 10.5bps, near recent post-Waller lows.
  • Cumulative cuts then build with 30bp for May, 55bp for June and 133bp for Dec (from 138bp pre-data) – see table.