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Fed Rate Path Still Drifting Higher Pre-Powell

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes are hovering at yesterday’s post CPI highs of 68bps for the Sept FOMC whilst touching new cycle highs further out.
  • There is 132bps to 3.65% for Dec and 147bps to a terminal 3.81% for Mar’23, before keeping to 35bps of cuts as the Dec’23 rate drifts higher to 3.46%.
  • Powell is clearly the focus at 1000ET (preview and full JH schedule) but we are also hear from various regional Fed presidents. BBG TV alone has Harker (0900ET), Bullard (0915ET), Bostic (0915ET) and Mester (1130ET) – although only Mester (’22 voter) didn’t speak yesterday – with at least Harker and Bostic again on Fox later, plus former NY Fed Pres. Dudley (0830ET). Further appearances likely on other media outlets too, incl. Bostic (0830ET CNBC).

FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures implied rate at specific meetingsSource: Bloomberg

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