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Fed Rate Path Unwinds Yesterday's Climb

STIR FUTURES
  • The Fed Funds implied rate for the May FOMC has slipped over the past hour, in a sharper move catching up with an earlier drift lower in ECB pricing. It now prices just 9bp of further hikes from the current effective to a peak 4.92%.
  • Into 2H23, meetings have reversed a little over half yesterday’s rate increases, with 28bp of cuts to Sep (up 4bps on the day) and 58bps of cuts to Dec (up 6.5bps).
  • Banking-focused Fedspeak today, with NY Fed Head of Supervision Dobbeck (0805ET, text + Q&A) before further remarks from VC Supervision Barr after his Senate appearance yesterday. It follows most recent WaPo headlines this morning that the White House is preparing to call for federal banking regulators to impose new rules on midsize banks.


FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures implied ratesSource: Bloomberg


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