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Fed Rate Path Where It Left Off Friday

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes have seen surprisingly little spillover from stronger than expected China data and German ZEW sentiment earlier.
  • 27.5bp for Feb, cumulative 48bp for Mar, 60bp to terminal 4.92% Jun before 46bp of cuts to 4.47% Dec, all unchanged or within 0.5bp of Friday’s close.
  • Williams (voter) welcoming remarks perhaps limited with no text and late at 1500ET, before Fedspeak resumes in earnest Wed with four speakers plus the Beige Book.


FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures implied ratesSource: Bloomberg


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