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Fed Rates Back Near Initial Powell Highs

STIR
  • FOMC-dated OIS rates have firmed overnight, with a helping hand from German regional CPI data pointing to mild upside risk. It sees year-end rates back near yesterday’s highs after Powell didn’t rule out consecutive hikes before the move was fully reversed at the time.
  • Cumulative moves from 5.07% effective: +20bp Jul (+0.5bp), +26bp Sep (+1.5bp), +31bp Nov (+2bp), +26.5bp Dec (+2.5bp), +14.5bp Jan (+4.5bp) and out to -36bp for Jun’24 (+3.5bp). The 68bp of cuts from the Nov terminal to Jun’24 tightens just 1bp on the day.
  • Earlier today, Powell comments at a Bank of Spain discussion again reiterated that the majority of the FOMC sees 2 or more rate hikes by year-end. Next Fedspeak from Bostic (’24 voter) on the economic outlook at 1500ET having said on Jun 23 he favors no more rate hikes for the rest of the year.

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