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Fed Rates Back Near Post ECI High With First Cut Fully Priced For Dec

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  • Fed Funds implied rates have nudged back close to highs seen after the surprise strength within the Q1 Employment Cost Index, shrugging off misses for the MNI Chicago PMI and Conference Board consumer survey.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 0.5bp May, 2.5bp Jun, 7bp Jul, 15bp Sep, 20bp Nov, 30bp Dec.
  • Tomorrow sees ADP and JOLTS for the usual monthly labor data releases ahead of Friday’s payrolls report plus ISM manufacturing, before attention turns squarely on the FOMC decision.
  • See the full MNI Fed Preview including analyst views here.
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have nudged back close to highs seen after the surprise strength within the Q1 Employment Cost Index, shrugging off misses for the MNI Chicago PMI and Conference Board consumer survey.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 0.5bp May, 2.5bp Jun, 7bp Jul, 15bp Sep, 20bp Nov, 30bp Dec.
  • Tomorrow sees ADP and JOLTS for the usual monthly labor data releases ahead of Friday’s payrolls report plus ISM manufacturing, before attention turns squarely on the FOMC decision.
  • See the full MNI Fed Preview including analyst views here.