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Fed Rates Lifting Again Having Fully Retraced Data Climb

STIR
  • Fed implied rates have begun to lift again having retraced most of their post-data climb. Near-term meeting implications still aren’t wildly different although the 5-6bp lift in 2H24 implied rates we noted after the data (which we thought was overdone considering the ECI miss) is now more like 3-4bps.
  • On the day, it leaves rates lower and eating into yesterday’s climb on stronger than expected GDP and weekly jobless claims data.
  • Cumulative hikes from 5.33% effective: +5bp Sep (+0.5bp), +9.5bp Nov (-0.5bp) to terminal 5.42%.
  • Cuts from Nov terminal: 4bp to Dec’23 (from 3.5bp yesterday close), 53bp to Jun’24 (from 48bp) and 124bp to Dec’24 (from 118bp).

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