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Fed Rates Unchanged On The Day, Initial Claims Eyed Tomorrow

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have unwound some of their earlier decline to leave them almost unchanged on the day.
  • A surprisingly large decline for wholesale trade sales in March (-1.3% M/M vs cons +0.8%) aside, there has been little by way of headlines whilst Fedspeak from Collins (’25 voter) and a financial stability-focused Cook (voter) hasn’t moved the needle.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 3bp Jun, 9bp Jul, 22bp Sep, 30bp Nov and 44bp Dec.
  • Tomorrow sees some more notable data with weekly jobless claims whilst Daly (’24 voter) speaks in a fireside chat at 1400ET. She said Apr 16 that the worst thing the Fed can do now is act urgently as it’s not necessary - there’s a need to be confident inflation is going to 2% before reacting.

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