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Fed Rates Unwind Yesterday’s Gain, Mester On CNBC Later

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have stabilised since the start of the European session after cooling through Asia hours, unwinding yesterday’s further climb but still holding sizeable increases since Waller and then the FOMC minutes on Wed.
  • Pertinent cumulative changes from current 5.08%: +10bps for Jun (-3.5bp), no longer fully pricing a July hike with +20bp (-4.5bp), -1bp cut Nov (-6bp) and -18bp Dec (-6bp). The July terminal of 5.28% is off highs of 5.435% but otherwise at highs since Mar 10.
  • Fedspeak: Not showing on BBG but Mester (’24 voter) is due to appear on CNBC at 1100ET. She last spoke May 16 and when talking on sufficiently restrictive rate levels, said “And at this point, given the data we've gotten so far, I would say no, I don't think we're at that rate yet. Because I don't see it equally likely that we'll be increasing the next time versus decrease. However, there's four weeks to go before the June meeting.”

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