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STIR: Fed Seen Cutting Next Week But Following Cut Not Until May

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates are little changed overnight for Dec and Jan FOMC decisions although sit as much as 2.3bps higher for mid-2025 ahead of today’s CPI report.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.58% effective: 21.5bp Dec, 27bp Jan, 42bp Mar, 51bp May and 62bp Jun.
  • Aside from an anticipated 25bp cut next week, the next fully priced 25bp cut is only just seen coming in May.
  • The SOFR-implied terminal has also ticked another 2bps higher today. At 3.65%, it points to only a little over 90bp of cuts for the cycle (including next week’s decision).
  • MNI US CPI Preview: https://media.marketnews.com/USCPI_Prev_Dec2024_b72e14af0a.pdf
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  • Fed Funds implied rates are little changed overnight for Dec and Jan FOMC decisions although sit as much as 2.3bps higher for mid-2025 ahead of today’s CPI report.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.58% effective: 21.5bp Dec, 27bp Jan, 42bp Mar, 51bp May and 62bp Jun.
  • Aside from an anticipated 25bp cut next week, the next fully priced 25bp cut is only just seen coming in May.
  • The SOFR-implied terminal has also ticked another 2bps higher today. At 3.65%, it points to only a little over 90bp of cuts for the cycle (including next week’s decision).
  • MNI US CPI Preview: https://media.marketnews.com/USCPI_Prev_Dec2024_b72e14af0a.pdf