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Fed Terminal Back At Pre-FOMC Levels

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes extend yesterday’s moderation, with 66bps priced for Nov (-0.5bp), before 4.19% for Dec (-2bp), a terminal 4.48% in Mar/May’23 (-5/6bps) and 4.31% for Dec’23 (-6.5bp).
  • Terminal rate expectations are back at pre-Sep FOMC levels having touched a high of 4.83% in the interim, although the Dec’23 remains some 30bps higher in the continued embodiment of higher for longer.
  • Stacked Fedspeak schedule: Powell gives opening remarks at a community banking conference at 1015ET whilst have first post-FOMC appearances from Gov. Bowman and Barkin (’24) plus repeat appearances from Daly, Bostic, Bullard and Evans.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures implied rates at specific meetingsSource: Bloomberg

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  • Fed Funds implied hikes extend yesterday’s moderation, with 66bps priced for Nov (-0.5bp), before 4.19% for Dec (-2bp), a terminal 4.48% in Mar/May’23 (-5/6bps) and 4.31% for Dec’23 (-6.5bp).
  • Terminal rate expectations are back at pre-Sep FOMC levels having touched a high of 4.83% in the interim, although the Dec’23 remains some 30bps higher in the continued embodiment of higher for longer.
  • Stacked Fedspeak schedule: Powell gives opening remarks at a community banking conference at 1015ET whilst have first post-FOMC appearances from Gov. Bowman and Barkin (’24) plus repeat appearances from Daly, Bostic, Bullard and Evans.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures implied rates at specific meetingsSource: Bloomberg