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Fed Terminal Seen Back Close To Post-CPI Low

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes have shifted lower, continuing through the session after a sizeable miss for the admittedly volatile Empire mfg index.
  • 27bp for Feb 1 (unch from Fri close), cumulative 46bp for Mar (-1bp), 57bp to 4.90% terminal in Jun (-2.5bp) before 48bp of cuts to 4.42% for Dec (-5.5bp).
  • It comes ahead of the BoJ overnight and tomorrow’s stacked docket including multiple important data releases, four Fed speakers (incl Bullard at 0930ET not showing on BBG calendar) and the Fed Beige Book.

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