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Fed Terminal Sees 5bp Hit From JOLTS & Conf. Board

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have held the initial hit seen after soft JOLTS and Conference Board data, with cumulative hikes reduced to +3.5bp for Sep and +12.5bp for Nov to see a terminal of 5.46%.
  • It’s a sizeable reversal for terminal pricing, which had more notably cleared 5.50% before the data for fresh highs since Mar 7-9 just before SVB disruption, and in doing so priced in significiantly greater than 50% probability of another hike.
  • Cut expectations have seen sizeable increases on the day but remain at the low end of recent ranges, with 47bp from terminal to Jun’24 (37bp pre-data) and 118bp from terminal to Dec’24 (107bp pre-data).

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