Free Trial

Fed Terminal Sees 5bp Hit From JOLTS & Conf. Board

  • Fed Funds implied rates have held the initial hit seen after soft JOLTS and Conference Board data, with cumulative hikes reduced to +3.5bp for Sep and +12.5bp for Nov to see a terminal of 5.46%.
  • It’s a sizeable reversal for terminal pricing, which had more notably cleared 5.50% before the data for fresh highs since Mar 7-9 just before SVB disruption, and in doing so priced in significiantly greater than 50% probability of another hike.
  • Cut expectations have seen sizeable increases on the day but remain at the low end of recent ranges, with 47bp from terminal to Jun’24 (37bp pre-data) and 118bp from terminal to Dec’24 (107bp pre-data).

To read the full story



MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.