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Fed Watching FI Futures and Implied Target Range

FED

From the Jan FOMC minutes:

  • Expectations for the path of the federal funds rate shifted toward earlier rate increases, and interest rate futures priced in an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate at the March FOMC meeting.
  • On average, respondents to the Desk surveys assigned a roughly 70 percent probability to an increase in the target range in March. The expected path of the federal funds rate in the Desk surveys and derived from interest rate futures also steepened over the period.
  • The median survey projection for the most likely level of the target range at the end of 2024 was about 2 percent, similar to December.
  • Nonetheless, survey respondents attached significant probability to outcomes in which the target range moved up more than indicated by the projected modal path.
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