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Fedspeak and 10Y Supply In Driving Seat

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys are holding 2.5-3.5bps richer as they remain within yesterday’s range and not notably different to pre-Powell levels after two-way reaction as markets assessed a broad continuation of data dependency guidance. A stacked Fedspeak schedule and 10Y auction are in focus today whilst data takes a backseat.
  • 2YY -2.7bps at 4.438%, 5YY -3.5bps at 3.799%, 10YY -3.4bps at 3.640% and 30YY -2.4bps at 3.689%.
  • TYH3 trades 8+ ticks higher at 113-16 within yesterday’s range. A bear cycle is still in play with support at 113-05+ (yesterday low) whilst resistance is eyed at the 50-day EMA of 114-03.
  • Fedspeak: NY Fed Williams (0915ET), Gov Cook (0930ET), VC Supervision Barr and Bostic (1000ET), Kashkari (1230ET) and Gov Waller (1345ET).
  • Data: weekly MBA mortgage data (0700ET) and final wholesale inventories for December (1000ET).
  • Bond issuance: US Tsy $36B 10Y Note auction (91282CGM7) – 1300ET. JPM late yesterday saw it requiring further concession with yields still too low relative to fundamental drivers.
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $36B 17W Bill auction – 1130ET
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