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Fedspeak Helps Drive Intraday Cheapening

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have held onto much of their intraday cheapening, more than reversing an overnight bid on China covid worries from first hawkish ECB language, then hawkish Fedspeak pushing back on 2023 rate cuts (Bullard and Williams, plus earlier from Mester on the need to see several good CPI prints) and at the margin a surprise improvement for the Dallas Fed mfg survey.
  • The latest addition to Fedspeak has been unscheduled updated remarks from Brainard which includes a point that the drawn-out sequences of negative supply shocks can call for tighter policy, although there has been surprisingly little net reaction in front yields.
  • With the curve trading 1-3.5bps cheaper, 2s10s at -76.6bps have nudged off new multi-decade lows
  • TYZ2 trades just 2+ ticks lower at 112-30+ off a session low of 112-28 and overnight high of 113-17, the latter now forming resistance. Further moves lower could see support at the 50-day EMA of 112-14 after which lies key short-term support at 112-04 (Nov 21 low).
  • House prices and consumer confidence are in focus tomorrow with no scheduled Fedspeak but potential further pop-ups after two today in Mester and Brainard.
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