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Final Feb HICP Due at 0700 GMT / 0800 CET

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

Final February data is likely to confirm the upside surprise in German inflation, which accelerated to +9.3% y/y (vs +9.0% expected) in the harmonised flash print. The 0.1pp uptick on the Y/Y print broke a three-month streak in easing HICP.

  • HICP rose +1.0% m/m, a clear signal that price pressures are continuing to build, with service price inflation a key driver. Anecdotal evidence of firms increasing charging prices due to mounting wage pressures was highlighted in the February services PMI.
  • Details on the national print (not HICP) confirmed this: Goods inflation eased by 0.3pp to +12.4% y/y and services increased 0.2pp to +4.7% y/y, implying upwards pressure on core CPI.
  • This will have likely underpinned the surprise 0.3pp acceleration in eurozone core HICP to +5.6% y/y in the February flash data.
  • The ECB has telegraphed a 50bp for the March 16 ECB meeting, and the upside surprises to February HICP have increased the chances of another 50bp hike in May .
DataHomepagemarkets-real-timeData BulletEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
DataHomepagemarkets-real-timeData BulletEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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