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Final GDP Print Signals German Economy Dips into Recession (2/2)
- On a sectoral basis, robust growth on the quarter was recorded for manufacturing (+2.0%) and construction (+6.1%), supported by decent growth in January and February before the sector loss momentum in March. Real estate (+1.2%) and other services (+1.2%) also posted robust Q1 upticks. The largest declines were seen in agriculture (-0.7%) and finance (-1.7%).
- Outlooks for the German economy remain muted. Strong services spending should generate less negative consumption in Q2, yet consumer confidence remains downtrodden and wary, with the weak propensity to buy goods to drag on retail sales. The manufacturing PMI continues to signal contraction, albeit Destatis sees current order backlogs supporting production levels until the end of the year.
- The May IFO and ZEW Survey flagged faltering optimism in May, as firms grapple with muted demand.
- The European Commission's Spring Forecasts project that the German economy will come close to stalling at +0.2% in 2023, implying that marginal growth for the German economy will largely be in the latter half of the year.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.