FRANCE DATA
Final HICP data for May came in a touch softer than flash on an annual basis at +2.6% Y/Y (vs +2.7% flash, +2.4% prior), the non-seasonally adjusted M/M figure also came in slightly softer than flash at +0.1% (+0.2% flash, +0.6% in April). Recall that the flash French Y/Y print was 0.1pp above-expectation.
- This was a mixed report: as was suspected from flash release, the lesser extent of slowdown in CPI was driven by Services, although overall slowdown continues to be driven by both core and non-core components.
- Annual CPI came in a touch higher than flash at +2.3% Y/Y (+2.2% flash, +2.2% prior) although on a M/M basis it confirms flash at 0.0% (vs +0.5% prior) - the difference in evolution between HICP and CPI is due to the drop in reimbursements in the health sector and the change in energy prices.
- Looking at the breakdown of national CPI:
- Core inflation fell to +1.7% from +1.9% in April.
- Services fell less than anticipated from flash printing +2.8% Y/Y in May (+2.7% flash, +3.0% in April). The slowdown was due to transport services prices slowing to +0.2%Y/Y from +0.6%.
- Energy prices came in slightly softer than flash at +5.7% Y/Y (+5.8% flash, +3.8% in April)., the rise was due to base effects.
- Looking at the breadth of HICP inflation, MNI's analysis shows that the proportion of components with inflation below 2% continue to rise from 56% to 60% in May - the highest proportion since October 2021. Meanwhile, the proportion of components with inflation above 6% remained sticky at 9% from 9.4% in April - although this is the lowest level since October 2021.
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