Free Trial

Final May CPI On Tap, MPC's Dabrowski Sees Potential For Cuts In Early 2025

POLAND
  • Statistics Poland will release final May CPI data at 09:00BST/10:00CEST. Flash data suggested that headline inflation ticked higher by a slim margin to +2.5% Y/Y, which is equal to the NBP's point-target. Although NBP Governor Glapinski described the recent streak of in-target readings as a success, the central bank continues to expect a rebound in the coming months, which underpins its preference to keep interest rates on hold, likely through the end of this year.
  • NBP's Ireneusz Dabrowski told Bloomberg that Poland may start gradual easing cycle in early 2025 if inflation is under control, after leaving rates unchanged through the whole 2024. He noted that "a rate increase is still the least probable option for now, although its likelihood rose slightly due to wage growth." He played down minor tweaks to the language of the latest MPC statement, saying that they had "no bigger significance."
  • The Finance Ministry seemingly yielded to the demand of the Family, Labour and Social Policy Ministry and the government agreed to raise the minimum wage by 7.6% next year rather than by the 6.8% proposed initially. Several sell-side analysts suggested that this might delay the return to the inflation target and result in interest rates staying higher for longer.
  • The NBP-sponsored journal Obserwator Finansowy launched a daily broadcast on YouTube, in line with Governor Glapinski's announcement made during his latest press conference. The channel will feature interviews with former and current MPC members, NBP advisors and experts.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.