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FINANCIALS: Deutsche: Postbank News Positive But Rather Small (+10bp of CET1)

FINANCIALS
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Deutsche Bank (DB: Baa1/BBB/A-) statement appears much more positive than BBG headlines imply. Part settlement agreed over Postbank, deal means a EUR430m addition to 3Q24 results, around 10bp of CET1 capital. Too small to move spreads much, in our view, but a positive (not negative!).

  • Settlement reached with 60% of claims class over Postbank takeover which is set to consume only 45% of the total provisions already made by the group.
  • Remaining provisions relating to these specific plaintiffs will therefore be released, meaning a EUR430m positive for the 3Q24 results.
  • 3Q24 consensus pre-tax is around EUR1.8bn, so this is a meaningful figure but, obviously, a one off. It’s only c.1% of CET1 capital so notionally lifts the CET1 ratio by just 10bp.
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Deutsche Bank (DB: Baa1/BBB/A-) statement appears much more positive than BBG headlines imply. Part settlement agreed over Postbank, deal means a EUR430m addition to 3Q24 results, around 10bp of CET1 capital. Too small to move spreads much, in our view, but a positive (not negative!).

  • Settlement reached with 60% of claims class over Postbank takeover which is set to consume only 45% of the total provisions already made by the group.
  • Remaining provisions relating to these specific plaintiffs will therefore be released, meaning a EUR430m positive for the 3Q24 results.
  • 3Q24 consensus pre-tax is around EUR1.8bn, so this is a meaningful figure but, obviously, a one off. It’s only c.1% of CET1 capital so notionally lifts the CET1 ratio by just 10bp.