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FINANCIALS: On Friday: Another Week of Tightening

FINANCIALS
  • Earnings reports have generally been positive; net interest income (NII) on both sides of the Atlantic has generally been reasonable with rate cuts being pushed out in time this year. Similarly, asset quality appears to be holding up, if not improving, with some improving macro spin coming out of Northern Europe, too.
    • US banks generally hit or beat consensus with most reporting improving US retail/card stats and loan losses better than expectations. These are positive portents for Barclays’ US cards business.
    • In investment banking world, the anticipated strength of equity businesses have come to pass with an obvious lateral to UBS.
    • Nordic banks have generally showed cautious optimism, too.  Danske’s capital return story today is, also, less of an obvious spread concern than at first look.
    • Bankinter is the only other reporter of note and showed both good NII trends, as well as positive NPL moves. Good for Sabadell and the Spanish majors.
  • Spread movers: Capital One and BCP both tightened on US card news and BKT results, we feel. Jyske Bank has been hit hard which, having seen Danske’s results today, appears unreasonable. Scor was the big loser in insurance world.
  • Regulatory news: the ECB is reportedly going to delay its investigation into the leveraged loan market. 
  • Scor profit warning: this was driven by a re-appraisal of its reserving needs, alongside yet more negative experience variances, Its bonds were hit hard, alongside French peer CCR Re. We feared Axa may get hit as well but this hasn’t happened.
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