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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GERMANY
The right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) recorded its highest-ever level of support in a Wahlkreisprognose opinion poll released on 25 June, garnering 21% This puts the party behind only the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) on 24%, and level with Chancellor Olaf Scholz's centre-left Social Democrats (SPD). The strength of the AfD is likely to cause significant concerns among other mainstream parties ahead of regional elections in 2024 in the eastern states of Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia.
- The surge in the party's support comes amid a political earthquake in the form of the election of an AfD candidate as head of the Thuringian district of Sonneberg.
- Since the AfD's inception other parties have refused to work with them on any level due to their right-wing policy stances on issues such as migration, integration, foreign relations, and energy policy.
- However, there are signs that the 'firewall' around the AfD could be crumbling. While CDU head Friederich Merz has warned of the impact of a rising AfD, some of his party representatives at the local level have advocated working with the party.
- While still unlikely, should the CDU and AfD establish any formal coalition or working agreement after the 2024 state elections it would raise the prospect of the two parties eventually working together at the federal level should they reach a combined majority of seats following the next election due by Oct 2025.
Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: Forsa, INSA, Infratest dimap, Wahlkreisprognose, Kantar, Civey, FGW, YouGov, GMS, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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