Firmer Alongside Peers, Futures Probing 100.00

Gilts follow global peers away from yesterday’s lows/yield highs with bulls trying to push futures back above 100.00 (highs of 100.08 thus far, last trading 99.98).

• Initial resistance in that contract comes in at the Aug 14 high (100.80), while initial support at the 20-day EMA (99.44) remains untouched, leaving the bullish technical backdrop in play.
• Yields are little changed to 2bp lower, curve sees some light bull flattening.
• 2s10s back below 25bp, ~8bp off last week’s ’24 high.
• 5s30s back below 75bp, ~13bp off the Aug 5 multi-month high.
• Domestic retail sales data was broadly in line with expectations and won't alter perceptions within the MPC.
• SONIA futures -2.5 to +2.0.
• BoE-dated OIS little changed on the day, showing ~7bp of cuts for the Sep MPC & ~40.5bp of easing through year end.
• Expect broader risk sentiment to dominate ahead of the weekend, with nothing in the way of major UK data/speakers due today.