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Firmer Start, Fiscal & Inflation Matters Eyed

GILTS

Gilts rally early on Tuesday.

  • Supportive factors include:
  • A pre-gilt open rally in wider core global FI markets.
  • The latest round of source reports pointing to a more modest round of fiscal easing at the Spring Budget.
  • Near two-year lows in the BRC shop price index and Kantar grocery price inflation measure.
  • Food price inflation is still elevated and BoE Governor Bailey has stressed the need for further progress on inflation before cutting rates (services inflation and wage growth remain sources of worry).
  • That leaves gilt futures +35 at 98.10 (97.76-98.15 range).
  • The technical picture is unchanged, with the bearish threat in the contract still intact.
  • Cash gilt yields are 5-6bp lower across the curve.
  • SONIA futures also firm, last flat to +4.0 through the blues.
  • BoE-dated OIS now shows 67bp of cuts vs. 63.5bp pre-open.
  • Comments from BoE Deputy Governor Ramsden are due later today (13:40 London).
  • Elsewhere, the DMO will sell GBP900mln of the 0.125% Mar-39 I/L gilt.

Fig. 1: Gilt Futures (H4)

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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