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Firmer Start, Friday’s High Holds In Futures

GILTS

Friday’s high (96.44) caps the early rally in gilt futures, as broader core global FI markets regain some poise after Friday’s late pullback.

  • A clear break of Friday’s high would turn focus to the May 23 high (97.44). A break there would start to threaten the bearish technical picture.
  • Yields are 0.5-2.0bp lower across the curve, with 5s outperforming.
  • Headline flow was scarce during Friday's pullback.
  • Pre-election political posturing continues to dominate UK news flow, with most BoE appearances cancelled through the July 4 election (policy meetings will take place as scheduled).
  • A reminder that late Friday saw the Citi/YouGov year ahead inflation expectations metric moderate to +3.1%, representing the lowest level since July 2021. Longer run inflation expectations also fell, hitting the joint lowest level seen since March ’21.
  • That will be providing some background support for GBP FI.
  • Friday also saw J.P.Morgan recommend 10-Year gilt longs at 4.38%, noting they “expect yields to be capped around 4.45% and floored around 4.10%.” They also flagged a relative cheapness vs. U.S. Tsys (based on cross-market STIR levels). This is a tactical trade, targeting a move to ~4.20%.
  • Final UK manufacturing PMI data is due today.
  • Elsewhere, the BoE will sell GBP750mn of medium-term maturity gilts from its APF.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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