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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Funds implied rates have seen a mixed session, with a June ‘skip’ seen increasingly likely (down to just +5.5bps) and still not fully pricing a July hike, but with subsequent meetings trimming cut expectations.
- Cumulative changes from 5.08% effective: +5.5bp Jun (-0.5bp on the day), +18.5bp Jul (unch), +16bp Sep (unch), +6bp Nov (+1.5bp), -9bp Dec (+2.5bp), -26bp Jan (+4.5bp).
- It leaves just 28bp of cuts from the implied July terminal to 4.99% at year-end, with the 9bp of cuts from current levels getting close to recent lows of just ~6bps in the period between Friday’s payrolls report and yesterday’s ISM services miss.
- UBS earlier called for a final 25bp hike in July after skipping June, having previously seen a peak with the May hike. They still see rate cuts starting this year but have pushed the start back to December (from September). Separately, JPM's Dimon has more recently said it's not particularly significant if the Fed raises 25bp.
- Tomorrow sees potential spillover from a BoC decision that could see a resumption of hikes having last hiked in January, in an otherwise light docket.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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