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Firming US Yields Play Out in Recovering Greenback

FOREX
  • Run higher in US yields playing out via USD strength since the European open, helping pressure EUR/USD through yesterday's lows and toward the 1.1029 printed on Wednesday.
  • Further greenback strength through the new year would bring the resistance in USD/JPY at the Y143.03 200-dma into play, a level that contained prices on the Dec27 rally and pre-saged a >200 pip pullback over the subsequent two sessions.
  • Month-end FX rebalancing models uniformly looked for USD selling into month-end due to the solid US equity rally over the month, however the staggered nature of market closures over the past week or so may mean the flow has already been and gone, leaving little USD selling bias into the WMR fix today.
  • AUD/USD slippage off yesterday's 0.6871 puts spot below the uptrendline drawn off the Dec15 post-Fed decision low, and any further retracement eyes 0.6793 initially ahead of 0.6745, the 23.6% and 38.2% Fib retracements for the late Dec upleg.
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