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Firmly Richer As Fedspeak and Weak PMIs Offset JOLTS Beat

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have surged today, technically led by the 3Y at typing whilst the 2Y remains off post-Chicago PMI highs but all other major benchmark tenors push new session highs heading towards the close.
  • There has been sizeable volatility through the session after a sizeable downside miss for the MNI Chicago PMI, higher than expected JOLTS job openings and then Jefferson (voter) and Harker (’23 voter) supporting skipping a June hike. They add to the overnight bid on external factors from softer Eurozone core inflation implications and China PMIs.
  • 2YY -7.4bps at 4.376%, 5YY -8.0bps at 3.727%, 10YY -6.7bps at 3.620%, 30YY -5.5bps at 3.836%.
  • TYU3 trades 17 ticks higher as it climbs to session highs of 114-18, nearer resistance at the 20-day EMA of 114-29+ and ultimately 115-07+ (50-day EMA). Volumes have soared, currently approaching 1.7M cumulative.
  • Tomorrow sees a swathe of data including ADP, ISM mfg, final ULCs/productivity for Q1, Challenger job cuts and weekly initial claims, all before Friday’s payrolls report.
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