First Min. To Face Confidence Vote Next Week, No Guarantee Of Success

Scotland's First Minister Humza Yousaf will face a vote of no confidence in the Scottish Parliament next week (likely Tue 30 or Wed 1 May) following the collapse of the governing agreement between his populist pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) and the left-wing environmentalist Scottish Greens on 25 April. The scrapping of climate change targets led to the Greens organising an internal party vote on continuing in gov't, a move pre-empted by Yousaf who dismissed the two Greens in cabinet on Wednesday. This ended the so-called Bute House Agreement left the SNP as a minority administration.

• Douglas Ross MSP, leader of the main opposition Conservatives, is set to move a motion of no confidence in Yousaf. In what appears to have been something of a miscalculation by the SNP, the Greens have stated that they will vote against the first minister rather than abstaining.
• The SNP has 63 seats, with the combined forces of the Greens and the three pro-Union parties (Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem) have 64. The sole MSP from the pro-independence Alba Party, Ash Regan, will therefore decide Yousaf's fate (a tied vote would go to the presiding officer, who would on custom vote with the gov't).
• In the event the no confidence motion succeeds, Yousaf would be expected to resign. MSPs would have 28 days to elect a new first minister. If this was not possible snap elections would be called. Polling shows Labour and the SNP level-pegging for the first time in over 15 years.